2, Nov 2021
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are in high demand, and their trading volume has increased in recent years. Crypto robots are the primary factors of this growth, and even inexperienced traders can trade bitcoin with this robot. The bot that comes out on top is Bitcoin Buyer, and the Bitcoin buyer erfahrungen 2021 blog reflects the bot’s user-friendliness and positivity.
13, Aug 2020
Why are these mining rig investment becoming very risky ?
I was looking for the best Asic investment to put my crypto trading profit into.
I thought like anyone else not advised, if I get my hands on a antiminer Z15, I should get ROI (return on investment) back in few months.
Let’s do some quick maths and technicals :
Z15 asic miner = 420ksol/s for 1500w (that’s 280 sol / w)
GTX 1070 miner = 400 sol/s for 100w (that’s 4 sol / w)
So a Z15 asic miner is the equivalent of 1050 x GTX 1070 and only need power of 15 of theses GTX.
As profitability of mining is define by the difference between what you earn and what it cost in electricity bill and all other expenses.
So these asic are really killing the GPU mining, that’s a fact and it’s been like this since the first asic came out for bitcoin.
Now you must think, well if these machine are so efficient in mining earnings versus electricity bill, then why not invest ?
Well there’s 4 factor you need to consider when projecting mining profitability plan :
1 . Halving of bloc reward date.
2 . Liquidity of the very few project minable with your ASIC miner (depend on the algorithm).
3 . When is the last ASIC generation have been released.
4 . When will be the next generation be released and what power efficiency ratio to expect.
Once you defined all these details, you can get a better idea of what should be your profitability within the time you actually have the ASIC mining for you.
There’s a Timing to play of course.
The first to buy from manufacturer is the first to stock once new batch is released, then they can resell to retail customers in their own shop, with pre-order money from customers.
The first the run that new generation ASIC miner is the most profitable miner worldwide, as soon as others are turning on units, profit is going down for everyone. The cake is always defined size and the more people come, the less cake on each share.
So why is it so tricky ?
– Because instant profitability of mining depend on the market value of the coin you mine.
– Because if you are not part of the first to grab one of those ASIC, you may see expected profitability been highly declined in matter of days after new batch released. So what should have been a 6 month ROI turns into a 2 year one. Even more if they release too much units on market and that coin market value is dropping with a bear trend.
– Because manufacturer have already too much control of what remains of crypto mining ecosystem. They can delay the release of batch, and actually mine with these for their own account.
They own mining pool, they own exchange, they own ASIC manufacture, they actually own the mining game.
It can all be set like Swiss clock and nothing can stop it.
They limit and control the machine supply and demand is always asking for more units as soon as possible with possibly 2 or 3 batch in advance in preorder already been filled.
This is actually pretty insane ecosystem.
Don’t fall for the easy money fantasy with these ASIC, if you pay your electricity, it’s a very risky investment that could turn into lose within month with a new more powerful unit release on the market.
And it’s a free market.
Perhaps, if you can be part of the manufacturer direct customer with bulk orders, then you can do something reselling these units or just mine with it.
The more you work on the electricity bill plan, the best the risk is.
But it takes a real facility room to run these, you can’t just put it in your bedroom, it’s very noisy and lot of heat is coming out of it. Must use extraction fans system.
That’s is why I won’t invest in ASIC miner and why you probably shouldn’t.
The staking argument just made the POW technology obsolete, ETH is showing the way to swap into staking system rather than mining with very high power consumption.
Staking is way more power efficient and eco friendly.
There’s not much new POW projects and trend is clearly declining.
Time will unlikely, ,not provide more juicy coins to mine.
Better find the good project to support and stake your investment. Who knows, inflation may turn the 6% yearly staking revenue into 60% with chart going up in the sky.
Surf the waves on short & mid term trades.
There’s a lot of noisy waves to ride.
30, Jul 2020
Are you wondering if it’s still right timing to invest in mining equipment and build your own mining farm ?
First of all you must understand what is crypto mining.
Many blockchain are using the “Proof of Work” (POW) bloc validation system.
It simply means, that each single blockchain bloc (that contains all transaction data executed in between two different bloc), is validated and confirming all transaction as soon as a miner hit the solution data to authenticate and validate all these transactions.
That specific miner (basically just a wallet address) is getting reward for being the lucky one who served as a blockchain bloc validation.
It’s kind of random for who gets the winning hash solution. This is the lottery side of mining.
But simple fact, the more hashrate you run, the more chance you have to hit winning hash and get rewards more often.
So how a small miner can compete with big farm ?
He can’t, but he can share it’s hashing power with thousands of other small miner, and act as a big farm, splitting the rewards among all participant regarding their hashrate power.
This is called a mining pool, anyone can connect to it, it’s all free and all free to go elsewhere at any time.
The more miners and different pools running, the more secure the blockchain is, preventing from “51% attack” and “double spent coin” exploit.
What you need to understand, is that there’s a limited amount of coin released (generated, minted) every day, the more people are willing to get the same coins, the less chance they have to find it, or their pool rewards share will be low and sometimes even pointless as there’s really way too much people on the digging.
It’s just like gold rush pattern.
One guy find some, then he tells his friend, who also spread to other people until there’s too much competition and it’s not worth it to keep digging.
The smartest people in there, are the earliest one to dig while it’s still profitable cause offer is bigger than demand (bid and ask).
The parallel other smartest, are the business runner, they understood that the market is already too busy and exploited, they wish to build a business plan to supply the miners, host em, feed em, sell them the fantasy that if they come here and use their stuff, they have a higher chance to be more competitive on the market.
IMO these business runner are the smartest, developing new needs and requirement for dreamers.
I’m sure you’ve got the point about gold rush logic and how most of the business in human society are just scaled on this pattern.
Success story => fantasy growth and feed => material supply & services
This principle is old like money.
So how come there so many miners still running farms ?
Well most of them have been in the mining game long time before it become really mainstream. Most of the initial investment is already turned into profit long time ago, when they now only reinvest profit.
When it was still very uncommon to mine cryptocurrency, like there’s no exchange, no endless twitter feed, no real concrete usage of the coins, just pure speculative investment, how many people to you think ended in it seriously ?
I can tell as I met a few, just a few people did believed in this enough, to spend a lot of money onto this new technology ecosystem.
Most of them in high-tech industry already, software engineer, coders, network manager, hardware supplier, I guess anyone with computer skills was able to adopt crypto even when it’s all line code application, no Friendly User interface, that came way later.
At the beginning it’s more a seed planted on internet community, with no plan or anything, just some literature about how it can release money from actual big cash holders, how it could revolutionize the standard economy.
Step by step, mind after mind, it all started to build some platform to interconnect it all.
Lucky most of early attracted people was in “Tech IT Dev”, and could develop many useful projects that are now well known and widely used.
It’s like a natural fruit seedling process.
The apple falls from the tree, the worm attracted by the fruit will replant the seed deeper and offer predigest food for the plant with the organic => mineral transformation process.
And the new tree will produce new apple that will feed new worms.
That tree is now a jungle called cryptocurrency, blockchain, smart contract, Defi, Stablecoins.
Back to mining context, as all these big and very early miner, are most probably still running astronomic hash power, you’ll never be able to compete with them on actual big project already rushed by everyone with your own material.
But you still can spot a new promising project, where attention is really exclusive and team seems to be serious and legit, support them early, mining their blockchain with rented hashing power (on Nicehash or Miningrigrentals) and be a competitive miner, temporary, without having to run rigs yourself and all negative and heavy points in having to host a mining farm.
If the project runs masternodes, go mine until you get a masternode or two, and then stop the mining, set your masternodes and patiently wait for the project to be listed on an exchange. Sometimes they even multiply in days, so that’s potentially multiplication of your investment.
If it’s a staking project, it’s just the same.
The more early you start holding these coins, the less competition there is and the more profitable your investment will be.
The only way to get such early position on a coin, while it’s not even listed on exchange, is mining.
This strategy made us earn tons of profit and I can’t advise enough, new miner to understand all that process and how to benefit the most with these temporary new gold mine spot.
You will need to learn a few things, like how much coins you will get if you are having a specific amount of hash power.
That’s the only formula you need to know.
The formula to calculate your daily mining session profitability
86400 / A * B / C * D = X
86400 = number of second in a day (60 * 60 * 24)
A = Blocktime (in second)
B = Blockrewards (in coins)
C = Nethash (total blockchain hashrate)
D = Minerhash (Your own hashing power)
X = The number of coin you’ll mine on 24h session
Now that you have the formula, you can simulate the price of a mined coin, using cloud mining platform.
Finally identify the real price of the coin, as long as it’s not listed on an exchange. Because you know how much it cost to mine X coins.
I can’t help you more on this post, lets mature it and I will post articles about how to use Nicehash and how to optimise your simulation with google calc sheet 😉
Also if you have any specific question, I highly invite you to join us on discord to meet and share experience more in details.
28, Jul 2020
LTC/USDT LTF Weekly chart
Well it’s a very beautyfull chart, I think ready to burst up as soon as BTC leads the way.
It’s been compressing since march crash and finally showing weekly downtrend line being broken with confirmation.
This is very bullish with a great profit potential as it’s still pretty low regarding it’s own history. Plenty of level to test up there.
LTC / BTC is showing very similar setup with plenty of headroom to grow up.
Don’t miss that one, Stop loss shouldn’t cost you much in case of scenario invalidation.
LTC is very correlated to BTC, and BTC is correlated with gold in opposition with the dollar.
If dollars falls, Gold and BTC seems to be rising.
18, Jul 2020
XLM/USDT 5m chart
Ok so this is a simple TA example to trade HTF context, very short therm positioning, sometimes few minutes, sometimes a day or two, but most of the time, you will be out of it in a near future.
Draw your levels, draw the support and resistance pivot.
Draw the trend lines, triangles and monitor what is happening when chart is reaching the end of the triangle you draw before.
It’s most likely to push hard one way or another, up or down.
So you need to focus on what you should do in each scenario.
Here we study the short case. It will of course define the long case on invalidation.
So if price keep getting rejection on the higher hedge of descending trend line, it’s most likely to keep correcting to retest lower supports levels.
If chart doesn’t correct and breakout the high of trend line, then it’ll be clear invalidation of short bear scenario and you’ll most probably have to flip your bias into bull long. But wait for confirmation on the time frame you are monitoring, 5 or 15 minutes charts doesn’t show same things 😉
Wait for confirmation is a good way to avoid fake-outs and surprisingly moves.
14, Jul 2020
Every trader, no matter what level of experience he is, have his own history.
We can assume we all started at same point, besides all material context, we are all born with an empty and blank brain.
All clear of influence and reflex, just pure raw grey matter to design.
As long as we are growing (until the age of 25 approximately) all this grey matter is very active and curious to understand everything surrounding our preoccupation. We accumulate data.
All this science game is about, to give logical explanation to all preoccupation.
To vanish fear of unknown with knowledge and experimentation.
So we clearly have this auto-balance mechanism, to counter fears, it’s instinctive to seek for logical explanation now that we think as scientist, Cartesian fellas. All this logic is pretty much undeniable nowadays.
This is a very useful tool for any task in everyday life, to be able to think and analyze on your own, no more 100% blind faith, you should think on your own.
So how can this auto-balance mechanism that regulate fears can help us in trading application ?
First, we are conditioned to give a lot of importance to money in a general manner.
Money is like lifeline to never let go. It feeds you, it gives you rights to live someplace and feel home, it allows you to afford pleasure of all kinds.
Money is the supreme candy.
For the most of us, it’s pretty hard to say, money isn’t a problem, and that’s why we all have to work to get your own piece of cake.
Money is very precious.
All this standard push money gambling aka trading, into a particular category, there’s some risk involved. That risk is loosing that hard earned money, pure simple loss.
This can hurt the feelings of any money user citizen, and it’s totally fair seeing the importance level of money in our life.
It’s very important to identify your feelings when you take a trade, if there’s some joy, some delusional euphoria, some huge stress peak, some anger and revenge feeling. It’s human emotion, 90% of it is wrong feeling and 10% of it is happiness ^^
Once you identified the feelings, you can work on it, it’s pretty much automatic, as long as you are aware of the mechanic, your brain will handle the good attitude to adopt. The only thing you have to work on is, identify what attitude you should adopt in each situation and context.
Having an already analyzed thought, because you anticipated the reality with case scenario study and simulation, gives you a very solid mindset to take decision and act faster, or in the most appropriate timing.
The less you think, the more you act.
Most of us always need to be comforted when have to face any kind of fear.
Better be independent and not count on others to supply this comfort, you will take the trade, you will be on your own and will have to decide for every aspect of it.
If you identified it all and worked on how to react, then you are ready to trade with confidence, to build real trust in your moves, plan and situation analyze.
This is self confidence apply to trading, but is also working for everything in life (my 2 cent advise ^^)
It’s just like everything in life, takes time to build, give it time and don’t rush into something you don’t understand, that can be dangerous.
I won’t share much situation example here because I think it’s important for independent trader to experiment on it’s own. Feelings are a very personal function, and everyone isn’t reacting exactly the same in each situation. For such things, it’s always better to learn on your own.
You futures trading session will thank you for having anticipated that part of trading activity.
Feelings and emotion control. Work on it, it’s really worth it.
8, Jul 2020
Here we are going to talk about why exchanges platform are not always a good friend.
To understand that point, we need to understand how the exchange ecosystem works.
There’s few actor on the markets :
– Retail traders (most probably like you and me)
– Institutional traders (Hedge fund and big capital or “smart money”
– Broker (on CFD or other derivative market, who will play against traders)
All these different party, pushing the market one way or another, expect profitable moves, profit at the end of the trade.
But not everybody can win at the same time, it’s pure logic, when some people earn, some others lose.
What if the platform you are trading on, is actually hiring a group of professional traders, with loads of funds and tools to play with the market noise and actually systematically try to trap retail traders.
They have 0% fee on trades and can buy sell to themselves and direct market until someone is pushing harder the other way.
What if the platform offers you an interface that’s got it’s own limitation in therm of performance for something like high frequency trading or other Quant trading strategy.
If the platform itself doesn’t allow you to compete with their system, it’s just like in a casino, the perfect analogy, all system are calculated and anticipated to have more chance to win against you who take a bet.
Here it’s the same logic.
A charming and well decorated platform to seduce and comfort the trader’s feeling, so he actually trade on this platform and play against the system.
Once you feel comfortable you will feel confident to place more capital money into position and start a real trading activity.
But once again, platform isn’t really here to help you to win, it’s just not their plan and expectation, otherwise how do you think they earn so much capital.
Statistic study said that 90% of retail day traders will lose money in the long term. Market isn’t friendly, and there’s no free money, you have to grab it on your own.
Build your own trading system that can compete with platform, with tools you have. If you can trade high-frequency, then don’t try to, and I know that most of crypto platform won’t allow it for retail traders. They can block the API request system to a bigger time frame like 1 second, and that makes most of high- frequency trading obsolete.
Better focus on bigger time frame and be more patient with trades.
There’s always new opportunity, just matter of time.
Remember the broker always bet against the biggest side of the Long/Short balance. Their aim isn’t to make the most win, but the contrary, to make the most lose.
I think it’s important to be aware of that part of context, that charming place isn’t always that friendly in the end.
Be careful, learn and train with small position size, test the platform interface, get familiar with it so there won’t be no typo costly mistakes or other time waste because you are not used to the “move” process.
Doubt shouldn’t be part of the process, that would mean you are not confident enough and should train more to control that part of the process.
Sometimes the home made system ends up like this ^^
8, Jul 2020
This is the perfect example of what you should avoid. There’s way too much levels and some are real, but not relevant enough.
The more contact with resistance level and support, the more relevant the Support/Resistance flip pivot is important.
It means there have been a lot of activity here, lots of fights to pass through this level, one way or another. This also means there’s a lot of people with position open in this price level area.
So how to draw these lines correctly ?
It’s very logic and simple, no need to search for complexity when there’s no reason to.
Start with high time frame levels, if any, start with the weekly or even monthly if relevant enough on historic past.
Draw the few most obvious level and then zoom into daily chart and repeat the same logic of drawing only the most obvious lines.
Lets draw it together on BTC (Binance spot chart)
We will use a color code to quickly identify what time frame is the level based on.
Weekly levels (yellow lines) :
Daily levels (teal lines) :
And you can stick to this as a pretty good start base.
This is landmarks for your future trades, a quick way to see where the market is, in the middle of nowhere, or working on a very long term Support / resistance line.
The zone in-between these lines, are high volatility zone, price zone where there’s not much public interest and open position.
This is where you can profit the most of your good positioning on these S/R levels. Both sides, Long or Short, the trade has a good Risk Reward ratio.
It’s worth taking a trade here, always managing your position size and secure your trade (can’t repeat that enough, it’s the hygiene of successful trader).
There’s a high chance that if level holds and act as a support, market will bounce the other way up in near term.
Same if level act as a resistance, high probability that market goes down soon or later and go all the way to retest the next important S/R level.
That’s why it’s very important to draw these lines properly, but not too much, only what is really relevant regarding long term history of the chart.
Trade these lines with pragmatic setup and your trading experience should be successful. It’s a long way anyway.
Low Time Frame Drawing
Of course you can do the same with Low Time Frame (LTF) charts.
We like to say that what is happening on HTF chart is also happening on LTF, just scaling difference. Some trader focus some trades on chart noise.
The smallest profitable range is what they try to catch.
But do it on a separate TA chart, so you don’t get too much lines and an unreadable chart. Always build a blank chart for daily scalp trading, for each session. That really helps to aviod over-bias mindset.
For such trading strategy, the time frame focus is very important, don’t forget about it, never get confused within too many different time frame chart monitoring. It just doesn’t works.
As you can see, all these zones are a potential trade.
But it’s better to focus on the worthiest ones, with biggest range and potential profit.
8, Jul 2020
When you take a position on a market, it’s very important to always set an affordable security level and also an exit at profit level.
To manage these parameters we have mainly 2 different tools :
– the Take profit
– the Stop loss
The take profit is that level you wish to exit the position, you choose a value at profit and wait for the market to hit your target.
The stop loss is another level you wish to exit the position if it goes the wrong way you expected.
Here is an example of a simple long setup.
As you can see it’s been successfully hitting Take Profit target and was secure all the way along if for any reason, market would go the other way in a very short period of time, making you unable to react in time.
You also need to trail your trades, adjusting stop loss value when the trade is in positive territory.
Like in this example, after the 2 first big green candle, you have confirmation that market wish to go higher and actually try to.
You can change your Stop loss for a “Break even” value or a small profit value to ensure the trade won’t cost you anything, no matter what’s happening in future.
This is also very important to understand.
This is the perfect way to manage a trade.
So how do I do this on Binance Spot trading (no leverage).
There’s two way to take position, Maker or Taker.
Maker will set a limit order and wait to be filled.
Taker will set a market order that will instantly be filled with market value.
Now that you have a position you need to manage the profit and risk.
So you will set a take profit or multiple take profit level.
And also you need to set a Stop loss.
You can do it manually, But to set both orders on Binance Spot trading interface, you will need to use the OCO mode.
Click and select OCO mode on the top right corner.
First value is Take profit limit value.
Second is Stop loss trigger value.
Third is real Stop loss limit order value that will be set when Stop loss trigger value is hit.
(Always choose a lower value to be sure to be executed)
This OCO mode will cancel the stop loss if take profit is hit, or it will cancel the take profit is stop loss is hit.
It’s a good automatic way to handle both Take profit and Stop loss on same position.
Once you understood how to properly use this interface, you will be ready to work on how to identify good setup to trade.
Being familiar with interface and deeply understand how does it works and what all functions do, is very important. You need to train yourself to be the most accurate and efficient when it’s time to take position. The more reactive you are, the better entry timing you will be able to play with.
The positioning process should take the less time as possible, that only take training and muscular memory.
Feel free to join Binance, the best Crypto trading platform available.
8, Jul 2020
It can be such a headache for any trader who takes position on a market without having good landmarks.
Before entering any market, long or short, you should always consider few things :
– What overall trend is defined ? (bull, bear or undefined trend range)
– What time frame seems to be interesting to trade, considering that overall trend and context level (if it’s near all time bottom value, of course you better turn your bias into Bull mode, cause there’s higher chance that soon or later, the market will reverse and revisit higher value.
Apply exactly the same logic for the Short/Bear trades, if it’s close to all time high (ATH) better turn bias into Bear Mode.
– What target seems to be reachable and realistic ? A trade with a viable plan has more chance to succeed and end in a positive result.
I will say that often, but my mentor always told me: ” Don’t forget to pay the trader “.
It’s always better to end a successful trade than miss profit because you hold it for too long.
– Is the range on a specific time frame, actually worth it.
A trade takes 2 times the fees for a filled order, buy then sell or long then short. If your trading fees are 0.1% per order, then you have to consider a 0.2% minimal range to trade, cause any trade with lower profit, will cost you money instead of profit.
So you need to identify viable and worthy setup, and once identified a good potential range zone to trade, stick to the plan, stick to the time frame (this is very important) to never get confused and miss your way out with profit.
Don’t change time frame on your trade, don’t get influenced by other time frame chart shapes. You took a setup on a specific time frame, stick to it.
That how a AI trading bot would have handle the trade, and that’s how you should always do. Trade must be as pragmatic as possible, don’t get tricked by your emotional feelings and bias. Stay blank and focus on your setups.
Trend context is just a technical factor to consider, to define your bias, but not a future predicting tool. Nothing is guaranty when you take your setup.
Always set a Stop-loss to secure your trade and position size should not be higher than 5% of your total bankroll.
This is the key to long term successful trading experience.
Stick to time frame for each setup and stick to the plan.
Always pay the trader.
Lambo fantasy is a trap.